DJ Thai '08-09 Sugar Exports To Match Yr Ago;Premiums Fall-Indus

SINGAPORE, Jan 29, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Thai sugar exports in the current crop year to Oct. 31 will probably be close to or match the previous year's, but competition from Brazilian exports is likely to have lowered the average premium, an industry official said Thursday.
"The impact (of cheaper Brazilian sugar) is mainly on prices, not quantity," and exports for 2008-09 crop year should be around 5 million metric tons, similar to the previous year, said Thai Sugar Millers Corp. Director General Thikha Khunnawat.
The average premiums however will fall from last year's, but "we should have seen the bottom already," and it shouldn't go to the extent of a discount, he said.

Following a plunge in global freight rates, industry participants had been expecting high-quality Brazilian sugar to erode Thailand's market share in Asia.
Cash premiums in Thailand, Asia's largest exporter and the world's second largest, are quoted at 35-50 points over the ICE benchmark March contract, off a high of more than 200 points in the middle of 2008.
The premium probably won't fall further, as many people believe the crude oil prices will rebound, and the demand side for sugar is healthy, Thikha said.
The International Sugar Organization estimated the global sugar deficit in 2008-09 around 3.6 million tons.
Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board has forecast a marginal 3% decline in local output in the 2008-09 crop year, from 7.82 million tons the previous year. Thailand itself consumes around 1.8 million-2 million tons of white sugar a year.