Sugar output estimate to increase to 156 lt

The country's sugar production during the current 2009-10 season (October-September) seems well on course to top 150 lakh tonnes (lt), if the latest estimates provided by the Cane Commissioners of various States are taken into account.

Based on the inputs supplied in their previous meeting with the Food Ministry officials on November 6, the total sugar output worked out to 146.14 lt.

This included 47 lt from Maharashtra, 39.60 lt from Uttar Pradesh (UP), 19 lt from Karnataka, 11.57 lt from Gujarat, 10.86 lt from Tamil Nadu, 5.34 lt from Andhra Pradesh (AP), 2.90 lt from Haryana, 2.80 lt from Uttarakhand, 2.75 lt from Bihar, 2.32 lt from Punjab and 2 lt from other States.

But if the latest information compiled from the Cane Commissioners' individual estimates at their recent meeting is taken into account, the production during 2009-10 would be 155.71 lt. That would be almost 10 lt more than what emerged from the November meeting.

The latest State-level estimates by Cane Commissioners, sources told Business Line, are higher for Maharashtra (57 lt), UP (41.60 lt), Tamil Nadu (11.92 lt) and Gujarat (11.67 lt), while being lower in the case of AP (4.36 lt), Uttarakhand (2.35 lt), Haryana (2.02 lt), Bihar (1.99 lt) and Punjab (1.80 lt) and unchanged for Karnataka (19 lt) and others (2 lt).

“The figures supplied for Maharashtra may be somewhat optimistic because even the industry there is currently putting production at 51 lt and 55 lt at the outer limit”, the sources noted.

Maharashtra

The Maharashtra Cane Commissioner's assessment is apparently based on a revised cane crushing of 560 lt, as against the earlier estimate of 460 lt. “Basically, they were assuming cane yields to be only 57 tonnes a hectare, which is now being seen at 70 tonnes”, the sources informed

But even after factoring in possible overestimation of Maharashtra's production (just as UP's might actually turn out higher than 41.6 lt), the emerging consensus favours overall production this season to be 150 lt-plus.

Opening stocks

Together with opening stocks of 40 lt and already arrived imports of 23 lt of raw sugar (or 21 lt white equivalent) and 5 lt of white sugar, total domestic availability would be over 215 lt. In addition, contracts have already been entered for another 12 lt of raws and 6 lt of white sugar, which takes the availability at well over 230 lt.

“This more or less meets consumption requirements for the current season. Whatever further imports need to be made would mainly be for meeting the consumption for the first two months of the next 2010-11 season, before mills begin crushing operations”, the sources added.

During the 2008-09 season, the country's sugar production was estimated at 146.66 lt, which included 46.15 lt from Maharashtra, 40.64 lt from UP, 16.64 lt from Karnataka, 15.95 lt from Tamil Nadu, 10.21 lt from Gujarat, 5.92 lt from AP, 2.43 lt from Punjab, 2.29 lt from Haryana, 2.23 lt from Uttarakhand, 2.20 lt from Bihar and 2 lt from others.

source: thehindubusinessline