Australia 2009-10 Sugar Output To Fall 2% To 4.56M Tons-Abare

CANBERRA -- Australia's raw sugar production next fiscal year will fall 2.1% to 4.56 million metric tons from 4.66 million tons this fiscal year ending June 30, 2009, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, or Abare, forecast Tuesday.

In its quarterly outlook publication, the bureau also forecast exports next fiscal year at 3.28 million tons, valued at A$1.40 billion, compared with an estimated 3.42 million tons valued at A$1.17 billion this fiscal year.

Australia is usually a major supplier of sugar to Asian nations, including Japan, South Korea and Malaysia.

There is little scope to expand Australian sugar output given the location of the existing industry on the northeast coast and as harvested areas of cane have declined sharply since 2002-03. Still, a decline in the area will largely be offset by increased cane and sugar yield in coming years with national output expected to stabilize around 4.9 million tons by 2013-14, it said.

World sugar production and consumption in a sugar marketing year ending Sept. 30, 2010, is forecast to be near balanced. The world indicator price will be maintained at reasonably favorable levels for growers over the next two years, before easing under the pressure of steadily increasing world output by 2013-14, Abare forecast.
The global price of raw sugar will edge lower next world sugar marketing year in 2009-10 to average 12.8 U.S. cents a pound, easing from an estimated 13.0 cents/pound this marketing year, then falling gradually to 9.7 cents/pound in 2013-14, Abare said.

World sugar production next marketing year is forecast at 166.1 million tons, up from an estimated output of 161.0 million tons this year, and may fall to 177.4 million tons in 2013-14, Abare said.

Global consumption next marketing year is expected to grow to 165.1 million tons from 163.1 million tons this year, and expand to 178.9 million tons in 2013-14, it said.
SOURCE: marketwatch